Empirical forecast validation
Funnel IQ tests a company’s forecast forensically against its own sales history –
revealing where it’s optimistic, where it under-sells, and how realistic its timing is.
Sales leaders get a forecast they can rely on;
investors, a price they can defend.
No system access or confidential names neededFindings usually within two weeks
We apply pipeline forensics: comparing what was forecast with what actually happened, lead by lead across the company’s history, and isolating the signals that predict which forecasts will fall short, and which will do better than expected. Every correction to today’s forecast is itemised and evidenced, so your judgement rests on facts you can defend.
Every past lead – won and lost – traced through the pipeline’s own records: how its forecast evolved, and how it turned out.
Where forecast values, win probabilities and close dates diverge from outcomes, and which signals predict it – for different lead types, deal stages and reps, and with confidence intervals.
Today’s pipeline, adjusted line by line for the biases its history reveals. Every adjustment is traceable to evidence, never assumed – by anyone, us included.
In one company, we detected that 61% of the headline pipeline value wasn’t supported by its own sales history – £7.0m that none of its reporting had flagged. At a conservative 8× multiple, that was over £10m of enterprise value.
Every engagement starts with a short, no-commitment feasibility check, to confirm the data trail is strong enough to read before anyone commits. Findings usually follow within two weeks.
The forensics are the same. The decision they inform is different.
See which parts of your forecast will hold up – and where the same pipeline could yield more.
Sales forecast validationPay a multiple only on revenue the evidence supports – and negotiate from the numbers, not the seller’s narrative.
Quality of Forward Revenue (QoFR)