Three things Quality of Earnings can’t show you
QoE validates the revenue already booked. The forward forecast that sets your multiple is built from management’s judgements – and no-one tests those judgements against how earlier ones turned out. The evidence to do so lies in the company’s own pipeline history – and reading it is what our Quality of Forward Revenue (QoFR) report does.
How much of the forecast
is real?
Where probabilities, values and close dates are systematically overstated – by segment, stage and rep, with confidence intervals.
Why it mattersYou pay a multiple on every pound of forward revenue. Pay it only on what the evidence supports.
Where is revenue
at risk?
Stalled deals still carried at live-deal odds, dependence on key people, and close dates that habitually slip.
Why it mattersThat is where to seek a price adjustment, warranties or earn-out protection – targeted, not boilerplate.
Where is the
real upside?
The segments and reps that consistently beat their forecast, and what redirecting effort towards them would earn.
Why it mattersThe value-creation case for the hold period – grounded in the company’s own record.
What one target’s history revealed
QoE had already validated the company’s historical revenue. These findings were entirely invisible to it.
Built on evidence, not opinion
We apply pipeline forensics: we trace how every past lead, won and lost, was forecast throughout its life, and compare that with how it turned out. Our analytics then isolate the signals that predict which forecasts will fall short, and which will do better than expected.
We reconstruct the history
Every past lead traced month by month through the company’s own records: how its forecast evolved, and how it turned out.
We detect forecast biases
Where forecast values, win probabilities and close dates diverge from outcomes, and which signals predict it – for different lead types, deal stages and reps, and with confidence intervals.
We recalibrate the forecast
Today’s pipeline, adjusted line by line for the biases its history reveals. Every adjustment is traceable to evidence, never assumed – by anyone, us included.
Delivered as a Quality of Forward Revenue (QoFR) report, structured to sit alongside QoE in your diligence pack: every finding charted, with its confidence interval and an exportable audit trail your advisers can check line by line.
Who uses pipeline forensics?
Before you commit capital
- A defensible view of forward revenue, with a pipeline value waterfall and confidence intervals
- Negotiation levers ranked by value and statistical confidence
- Risk concentrations pinpointed for targeted contractual protection
Through the hold
- Early warning of revenue deterioration, while there is time to act
- Systemic underperformance separated from random variance
- Reallocation opportunities sized, with an EV bridge at the exit multiple
Alongside your diligence
- Forward revenue validation your competitors don’t offer
- QoFR report formatted to integrate with QoE documentation
- White-label, co-branded or jointly presented
Built for the deal timetable
Independent of management and the sell-side, and complementary to QoE and commercial due diligence. We work from a single history export of the target’s CRM: no system access, and the analysis itself needs no confidential names.
- No-commitment feasibility checkConfirms the target’s data trail is strong enough to read.
- Headline findingsWithin days, where the deal timetable demands.
- Full QoFR reportTypically 5–10 working days from receiving the data.
Questions deal teams ask
Why doesn’t financial due diligence catch this?
Financial due diligence, with Quality of Earnings at its core, validates the historical numbers: what was booked, and whether it was real. The forward forecast that determines your entry multiple may be reviewed for reasonableness, but is rarely tested against the company’s own track record. QoFR fills that gap, sitting comfortably alongside QoE.
How does this relate to commercial due diligence?
CDD tests the market – how much revenue it can support, and the target’s competitive position within it. It can’t show whether the company will actually win that revenue: where its projections are realistic, and where the fat is. The two are complementary: CDD validates the opportunity; pipeline forensics validates whether the company can actually capture it.
Why can’t management see this themselves?
No-one can correct for forecasting biases without evidence of where they lie, and how far they distort today’s forecast. That evidence can be recovered from the records past leads left as they developed and were won or lost. But no snapshot shows it, and no-one inside the business is in a position to read it objectively.
How do you know the findings are reliable?
They’re not our opinion, or anyone else’s – they’re what the company’s own data history proves. We back-test every pattern against leads that have already closed or been lost, and keep only those that prove dependable. We then apply them to the leads in the forecast you’ve been given, each with its statistical confidence – and show you the evidence behind every adjustment, structured, ranked and charted, so you can decide.
What if the target’s CRM records are patchy?
The question isn’t whether recorded data is perfect – it’s whether there’s enough of it to detect the biases with statistical confidence. Irregular recording itself often contains patterns that turn out to have predictive value. Our initial feasibility check answers the question before anyone commits.
Can we test it on a deal we’ve already closed?
Yes – and it’s a good way to judge the method. Run it on a completed deal, and compare what pipeline forensics would have shown you with what actually happened.
What about confidential information?
We work under NDA as standard. Our analysis needs no confidential customer, deal or rep names: it runs on amounts, stages, dates, probabilities and reference codes that only the company can match back to real deals and people. Where a system can only export the figures together with names, we anonymise them on receipt.
Which CRM systems do you work with?
We can draw from any of the major CRMs, or from management’s spreadsheet-based pipelines. We give the company step-by-step instructions to get a history export from its system, and help where necessary. No logins, no integration, nothing to install.
